ZALGIRIS: FORCED RESTART

Olympiacos season restarts

The abrupt departure of coach Jasikevicius in Barcelona, ​​caused a forced restart in Zalgiris. It is known that he was not just a coach for this team but something much more. However, he left behind an almost closed roster, as many of the transfers had already been made. The new coach comes from the Utah Jazz program, as the coach of the second team in the G-League. This program is famous for how close it is to the European way of thinking. So coach Schiller has a very difficult task, as it is not so easy to replace the coach who was much more than just a bench manager for Zalgiris.

The users

  • This year, Walkup will be decisive, more than last year. It is now his 3rd year in the team and in the Euroleague and he is expected to be decisive in what the Lithuanians want to present. Also next to him and logically also with a lot of time the ball in his hands will be Lekavicius, just as important and even more compare to his previous appearances with the team. Here we now have 2 players next to it with a question mark on whether they can upgrade their status ,
  • Steve Vasturia, whose (acquisition by Jasikevicius before leaving for Barcelona) surprised us, as he was a player with a small European presence but with a remarkable career in college.
  • of Rokas Jokubaitis who showed especially in the friendly with PAO that he can present some solutions for them. This year he will have increased responsibilities. Characteristic of him that he also has a strong left drive . He is a player who shows that he can satisfactorily read off the dribble , but there is no getting around the fact that it will definitely take time to see the quality translate into efficiency in the Euroleague.
  • When Milaknis step on the floor , as last year, many plays run in order to take advantage of his ability to perform coming off the screen.
    So, with the help of Grigonis, all those guys will “run” the team.

What we saw from the users – guards in the first games

Zalgiris played at home in a Euroleague level tournament with PAO, Armani and Alba. They have also played in championship 3 matches and was defeated in the last game by Lietkabelis. In relation to hose games I can mention the following notes:

  • There is no user who can pass or execute off the dribble at a very high level. It is characteristic that in the friendlies , shots that came from dribble were proportionally half of what a team has in the Euroleague as average ( volume ). This means that the defense can more easily cover the spot up shooter positions most of the time and the big man will not need to be busy enough with the user. As a consequence of the former, a team that will push the ball and will not let them drive to the basket will easily have a big advantage over them as beyond the drive it will be a little difficult for them to find another way to attack.
  • While they have players who like attacking the basket, they do not have the characteristic of drawing fouls and going to the charity line. This was evident from the free throw shots they won in all the games they have played so far.
  • In defense we can say with few exceptions most of them can not easily stop someone in defense. I think the loss of Ulanovas will be quite decisive for them, as it has not been replaced by an equal size or aggressiveness.

Front line

There were big changes with the loss of Landale, LeDay and Ulanovas who helped a lot like PF as well. Of course in theory Lauvergne is an upgrade compared to Landale… remains to be seen on the floor as he comes from injury and bad last season. There is also Rubit in the place of Zach LeDay who usually plays as a center for them , however sometimes I saw him as a PF. From there, there seems to be a question among the tall ones about how much and how they can space the floor. Last year Hayes played with Leday and they had both Ulanovas and Jankunas, but he also played a lot at 5. Now instead of LeDay who was an offensive threat and away from the basket, they have as I said Rubit who more I would say it plays with characteristics of a center. For a few minutes they also use Geben as a center, a player who shot 2 years ago enough three-pointers; last year he did not have much participation. They have to play a few games to see how the front line will gel together.

Style of play

Their playbook has some of last year’s plays as well as some new ones. Their coach seems to like the European way of playing in attack as I said. We’ve seen plays to take advantage of Lauvergne’s ability to pick and cut in the game (and in the post) and try to create handoff situations. Let’s look at 5 characteristic clips from the situations they are going to create:

1) From a handoff attack

2) A play mainly for Milaknis again trying with handoff to create an attack

3) A fairly common move that starts with the 2 short screen in order to create confusion in the defending guards.

4) POST UP attack on Lauvergne

5) They sometimes tried to put in the post with Walkup and Grigonis some of the weakest defenders.

Conclusion

Zalgiris without being a team that should not be neglected , is not in the group of strong teams. It has players who have played in the Euroleague for many years, but with known capabilities more or less.
The number 1 thing they will try to do is to attack the basket (from PnR, handoff etc, post game) in any way and if there is no lay up, to create a kick pass. In defense I would say that they do not touch the level of energy that came out in previous years there … but it is still preparation.
If one could choose a first match and even at home it would be one of the teams one would like. After all, Olympiacos is at the beginning of a new era and would not like to put a high degree of difficulty against the team from the start. What is certain, however, is that it is, as we used to say in the old school electronic games , a good “Level 1” game , to test what the future holds for them.

SHOT CLOCK EXECUTION IN NBA

Something we can all agree is that the game of basketball is constantly changing. Everybody can feel it or even better see it by reading the really detailed statistics that nowadays exist. We have been watching the great documentary on Chicago Bulls “LAST DANCE” and the thing that strike us is the use of CENTERS , RODMAN and LONGLEY. Was the game slower at the time in terms of possessions ? How much slower ? When did the teams execute ? Using the official NBA stat site we can determine the answer to the previous questions , up until the 2013-14 season.

SPEED OF THE GAME

Using the link below

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html

we can check out many interesting stats during the past many many years. Focusing in the column of PACE , we can see that this year the PACE is 100.2 per game when 10 years back was 92.7. That is a huge grow. Travelling a further 10 years on time capsule to the LAST DANCE season , we had 90.3. Obviously the last 10 years is a bigger change. Our next thought is to analyse in which exact moment of the shot-clock , teams will take a shot and what has changed from 2013-14 season till today.

HOW DOES NBA BREAKDOWN THE 24 CLOCK

Visiting the NBA official website

https://stats.nba.com/teams/shots-shotclock/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=TEAM_NAME&dir=1

, we can see how they breakdown the clock and when and what was that shot.

  1. 22-24
  2. 22-18
  3. 18-15
  4. 15-7
  5. 7-4
  6. 4-0

I will look the first 4 , that involve the biggest part of offense.

TRANSITION GAME

Anyone who is slightly following this sport seriously nowadays understands the importance and the growth of TRANSITION GAME. It is a huge trend in the last years. We know for a fact that the game is faster , but how faster it is when we think of it as 1 possession ? Most people when they hear transition game , they imagine somebody grabbing a rebound , making a 1 pass and somebody taking an immediate shot. Truth however is not that simple. Teams try to have a quick organisation vs a slower one that used to be the case. This is even more difficult , vs going to the other end and stopping to wait the players to go to the play positions !

22-24

First I will look this range. The percentage of the offense that was taken the last seasons is us follows :

  • 2013-14 we had the following frequency 5.45% in regular and 4,40% in playoffs.
  • 2014-15 we had the following frequency 5,29% in regular and 4,31% in playoffs.
  • 2015–16 we had the following frequency 4,77% in regular and 4,20% in playoffs.
  • 2016-17 we had the following frequency 5,25% in regular and 4,11% in playoffs.
  • 2017-18 we had the following frequency 5.40% in regular and 5,12% in playoffs.
  • 2018-19 we had the following frequency 2,97% in regular and 2,79% in playoffs.
  • 2019-20 we had the following frequency 3,16% in regular.

We straight glance the 2013-14 season , when we had 5.45 frequency and compare it to nowadays that is 3.16% ! This calculation is proving the opposite of the point we are trying to make that the game is faster paced ? This is a circa 40% reduction in automatic offense. Another interesting stat is the reduction of the 3p shot , moving fom 0.51% to 0.16%. So now we have some doubts … how do we play faster ?

22-18

Moving to the next category , the offense between 22-18. The percentage of execution at this range are :

  • 2013-14 we had the following frequency 13.01% in regular and 11,37% in playoffs.
  • 2014-15 we had the following frequency 13,02% in regular and 13,24% in playoffs.
  • 2015–16 we had the following frequency 12,32% in regular and 12,42% in playoffs.
  • 2016-17 ε we had the following frequency 13,46% in regular and 13,27% in playoffs.
  • 2017-18 we had the following frequency 14,88% in regular and 15,89% in playoffs.
  • 2018-19 we had the following frequency 14,20% in regular and 13,43% in playoffs.
  • 2019-20 we had the following frequency 13,98% στην regular.

Not many changes in this category. We can just see an increase in the 3p frequency , around 45%.

18-15

The next range is the 1 that i believe changed the most. Check out the numbers :

  • 2013-14 we had the following frequency 13.43% στην regular και 12,82% in playoffs.
  • 2014-15 we had the following frequency 14,18% in regular and 14,46% in playoffs.
  • 2015–16 we had the following frequency 14,49% in regular and 14,57% in playoffs.
  • 2016-17 we had the following frequency 13,46% in regular and 15,29% in playoffs.
  • 2017-18 we had the following frequency 17,28% in regular and 15,55% in playoffs.
  • 2018-19 we had the following frequency 17,63% in regular and 16,81% in playoffs.
  • 2019-20 we had the following frequency 17,65% in regular.
  • Obviously here there is an explosion in the frequency of shots. From 13.43% that we had during the 2013-14 season , the number is exploded to 17,65% which is the case nowadays … an increase of 30%. So we need to recognise that when we mention the word PACE and SPEED for a basketball game ( at least proven statistically in the NBA ) , does not mean only a FAST BREAK or an early shot. Most of the teams now try to create offense on the flow while they “CONVERT” ( as coach Bobby Knight would say ) from defense to offense , without having to call a play and stall the possession. Furthermore we have a great increase in the 3p shot in this range of the 24 shot-clock , going all the way up from 4,01% to 7,34% of the shots !! So for a team of today , the challenge is to create good automatics to be able to quickly set up some type of organised offense early , without stopping the “CONVERSION” to offense. This type of game certainly involves a lot of decision making from the players that are not so muck pre determined. There is a lot of specific culture to be injected in team to be able to efficiently make decisions on the fly , that are efficient.

15-7

So this is the part of the clock that most likely the team has called a play… as we say half court offense.

  • 2013-14 we had the following frequency 45,75% in regular and 45,99% στα playoffs.
  • 2014-15 we had the following frequency 45,62% in regular and 44,78% στα playoffs.
  • 2015–16 we had the following frequency 43,28% in regular and 47,02% στα playoffs.
  • 2016-17 we had the following frequency 45,58% in regular and 46,08% στα playoffs.
  • 2017-18 we had the following frequency 44,41 in regular and 43,63 στα playoffs.
  • 2018-19 we had the following frequency 47,38% in regular and 47,64% στα playoffs.
  • 2019-20 we had the following frequency 47,82% in regular.

Going back to 2013-14 we had 45,75% which is now slightly up to 47,82%. It is logical because if we check out the last part of the clock ( last 4 secs ) we can see that the number is lower. Actually the offense in the last 4 secs in the NBA the frequency of last season was 8,62% when in 2013-14 season was 12,33% ! For the respective time frame the 3p frequency was 3,81% and 4,00%. Going back to the 15-7 range , the 3p frequency is also higher , moving from 14,99% to 18.00% in todays NBA.

PLAYOFFS vs REGULAR season

By scanning the stats there is no immediate change to the stats during playoffs… whatever the case usually is in regular season , the same holds true for the playoffs more or less in the majority of the seasons.

CONCLUSION

We are in the fast CONVERSION era … teams now look to maintain the flow of the CONVERSION , without pausing so much and let the defense organise. This is a difficult type of basketball that can be easily misinterpreted. Reading the defensive liability is not an easy task. Teams need fast-good offense , not fast-food offense. Taking into consideration the rise of the 3P transition 3p shot in volume and efficiency , I believe that creating an open shot within the range of 15-18 shot clock is the now optimal offense , which is very difficult to be stopped from defense. In any case the advantage of a good early offense is always on the player with the ball since defense many times cannot control how they match up when they go back to the defensive end ! At this moment EUROLEAGUE offense in the last 4 seconds was actually increased the last 4 years , according to SYNERGY SPORTS ! In 2013-14 we the last 4 seconds league average was 13,57% for all the teams that participated ( format was different ) versus 17,97% that was last season. This is a stat for another research !

Real Madrid vs Panathinaikos EUROLEAGUE analysis

This season we will see the part 2 of last season’s PAO vs Real series.Last’s year favorite of the series was PAO , having finished the season on a high and occupying position 4 of the table and the home advantage. This season the tables have turned and Real has the advantage. However PAO again had a strong finish after shuffling the cards mid-season and bringing couple of players and HALL OF FAME coach , Pitino.

STORY SO FAR

Focusing in this year’s results we can see that Real has won all the games that a team will say they “lock-in” before the seasons start.They won most of the “required to win” games , against weaker teams.From the top 2 teams they lost to FENER away and CSKA home and away , however they won at EFES in a weird game that it seemed they were close enough to lose , but came back at 4th quarter. From their away games we can say that the biggest win was at PAO with this end of game 3p shot from Fernandez. Comparing this season to last also we can see that they had in most of the games their full roster versus last season where they missed in regular season their leader , Sergio Llull. After Doncic departed they did not acquire any high profile substitutes , but placed their “money” on Facundo Campazzo to “come up good” and provide the level of integrity they needed.Campazzo played a key role for them last season in regular season and in play-offs initially , however his role was minimized at the moment that Llull returned and participated only 10 total minutes at Belgrade’s FINAL FOUR.I also must note the performance of Tavares , who this season totally adjusted to EUROLEAGUE and was key for them in some pivotal wins during the season.

SOME STATS + KEYS

Real had top OFFENSIVE rating for the most part of the season and best DEFENSIVE rating .PAO is the 6th best DEFENSIVE rating team and 13th OFFENSIVE ratings , most of these stats were steady from the beginning of the season.Having said that , the series home advantage is for Real Madrid this season , PAO has to stop 1 of the top offense in the league at Madrid , something they have been able to achieve a lot during the regular season. Taking into consideration that their leader Llull will miss some parts of this series due to injury makes the whole scenario , more achievable. Llull had a pivotal role for them even statistically in their wins since in every game that they won had double points and assists versus their losing games.

OFFENSE REAL DEFENSE PAO

Their recent game at Athens is a roadmap to confirm some statistical thoughts that i have. Let’s check out a key sample of their stats:

  • 2nd in 3p shots per possessions and 7th best percentage ( 38%)
  • 1st in OFF SCREEN possessions and 3rd in OFF SCREEN EFFICIENCY
  • 1st in PnRoll possessions with TAVARES to be the player that is the top PnR receiver in the league in terms of POSSESSIONS.
  • 2nd in ASSISTED field goals
  • 3rd team in HALF COURT EFFICIENCY, 4th in HALF COURT POSSESSIONS
  • 15th in terms of offense created in the last 4 seconds.

STATISTIC KEY

  1. 3PA / FGA rate : PAO under Pasquale allowed their opponents to shoot 3.1 3p shots every 10 shots. Under Pitino this number has raised to 4.1 3p shots every 10 shots , which is top percentage. In the last game at Athens I can validate this with Real taking 36 3p shots from 65 shots ( 55% of their shots ). PAO is clogging the paint and force the opponent take as many contested 3p shots as possible.
  2. DEFENSIVE REBOUND: This was the “Achilles heel” of PAO’s last game , excluding home Baskonia game. Real had to many of them at Athens and this stat will be pivotal , against a team that already has high offensive performance.

They will execute their offense mid 24 shot clock. Most of their makes will be created with team effort and that’s why are assisted. They rely a lot to the 3P shot because they have high volume and high %’s 3p players. Most from those 3P shots , come in 5 against 5 offense , half court. They use more than anybody else in EUROLEAGUE OFF SCREEN offense , having in their roster OFF SCREEN “specialists” like Carroll and Fernandez and not only them , since most of their players are capable to execute in this type of offense. In their Pick and Roll offense , excluding Llull , they are not so capable OFF DRIBBLE shooters. That’s why Tavares and Ayon are really high volume Pick and Roll receivers this season. Both of them are capable to screen and quick cut to the basket , Tavares also can seal defense for a deep catch.

With the situation as it is now , key for them will be Fabian Causer but also Prepelic. In most of the games that either Campazzo or Llull was absent from the game , their offense was hurt and most of the times they even lost the games.Having said that however , Llull was absent all season long last year and most their current roster has been through this process already. Nonetheless for sure they will have a great problem since their creative users are limited even as a full roster.

PAO OFFENSE REAL DEFENSE

  • They are the best defense in EUROLEAGUE
  • Inefficiency in TRANSITION defense , EUROLEAGUE and ACB
  • Opponents worst league shooting %’s
  • TOP team to force opponents to take OFF DRIBBLE shots.
  • Opponents low OFFENSIVE rebound %
  • 3rd in blocked shots

STATISTIC KEY:

  1. Percentage of PnR offense user : At Athens recent game Real forced PAO with their defense to take 33% of their PnR offense with the players who was running the PnR , which is double from what PAO normally does.PAO already is a low %’s OFF DRIBBLE team and PnR ball handler efficiency team. Forcing the user to take a lot of shots was key to keep PAO’s offensive rating low in this game.
  2. OFFENSIVE REBOUND: PAO is really high on OFFENSIVE REBOUND %’s in the last games and REAL is top on refusing those during season. This will be a high KEY.

PAO last season and also this , had relied a lot on FAST BREAK. Last year especially in home games they were really successful in executing , not so much however in away games. Coach Pitino maintains and even stepped one gear higher the gas pedal , recognizing the Calathes effect and also the capabilities and in capabilities of the supporting cast. Until Pasquale ‘s departure PAO had 12% of their offense to be FAST BREAK , a number that peaked at 14% in the next 16 games under Pitino’s reigns.Add to that the fact that PAO took 14 3p shots in the first 14 games in FAST BREAK ( scored 1) and then 30 FAST BREAK 3p shots ( scored 8 ) in the next 16 games under coach Pitino.How the game started recently at Athens should be a roadmap for PAO. Real has a TRANSITION problem both in EUROLEAGUE and in Spanish league. If PAO can execute and play in FAST BREAK “efficient” mode , then they will boost their offense , that is not so efficient in half-court game. However they can “get lost in their own museum” if they do not recognize opportunities and just try to play high volume FAST BREAK offense.PAO was really efficient to put the ball in the post in the last winning streak games and create lot of offense from there.Game at Armani was a great example. Whenever Real’s lost , their opponents had high volume POST POSSESSIONS. PAO has a good POST offense , especially in the last games and this for PAO will be key to boost their offense.

STATS are from SYNERGY SPORT TECHNOLOGY

The 3P effect !

It is a fact understood early in the NBA first with the introduction of eFG% and in the last years in European level that the ability to make 3P shots is a really big factor in order for a basketball team to win games . This is not a big invention but is also backed up by real numbers as we can easily find out . Euroleague teams slowly adopted this style also and after the extension of the 3P line , the shot attempts ( in respect to total shots ) and the %’s are going every year up .Below is first the 3PA/FGA percentage which is the ration of how many shots were 3P out of the total attempts and then is the respective average of 3P% of all the Euroleague teams . Numbers are from GIGABASKET.ORG.

  • 2009/10 before extension 3PA/FGA 0.36 with 35.9 % .
  • 2010/11 with 6.25 3PA/FGA 0.33 with 33.3 % , attempts and %’s went down .
  • 2011/12 3PA/FGA 0.33 with 33.8% , slight improvement there .
  • 2012/13 3PA/FGA 0.34 with 35.2% .
  • 2013/14 3PA/FGA 0.35 with 35.3% .
  • 2014/15 3PA/FGA  0.36 with 35.2% .
  • 2015/16 3PA/FGA 0.37 with 35.4% .

This is the case also in NBA , using this link we can find out exactly the same .

NBA averages.jpg

Post defense was key in CSKA RED STAR series , game 1 .

Red Star has size with Zirbes and Stimac . Especially Zirbes with Bourousis and Raduljica are the top 3 players in Euroleague in terms of possessions created from the low post . CSKA was really aggressive on the post in game 1 , denying and bumping , packing the paint …. making life hard for them to receive , which is the main reason they were not effective . Sometimes we think you need tricks and magic to play defense vs bigger guys , but it is all about playing hard simple and do the little fundamental things that matters . Let’s see some clips .

Spain created momentum with a new offense .

We read all the time about how small is the impact of coaches in the EUROBASKET and generally in summer tournaments  . However we think that both coaches , KAZLAUSKAS and SCARIOLO did a really good job for their teams , helping them create a strong unit in such a small time . In the final game SPAIN used consecutively a ball screen setting a back screen to defender of the big … a play that set the tone early in the game for them . This play is quite tricky to defend , many teams in this tournament used it a lot , each one attacking different ways .

Adriatic league playoffs are great, your turn Euroleague

For the first time ever, Adriatic league has adopted playoff format in this season. League that was founded in 2001 had lot of different 2nd stage format (phase after regular season), but it took some unexpected results last season (Cibona winning the league against Cedevita in the final) for ABA to finally implement 4-team playoffs with best-of-five series format. While nobody is asking players how they feel (and they are overloaded for sure), system change has been a big success if we look from fair and competitive standpoint.

Buducnost and Cedevita are tied at 2 after four games and the fifth game is going to decide ABA league finalist. Finalist will go directly to Euroleague. First two games in Podgorica where really great, especially Game 1 where Buducnost won in closing seconds. Over two games in Zagreb, Cedevita found some new defensive energy in 2nd qtr of Game 3 and destroyed Montenegro’s team.

Crvena zvezda has won vs Partizan 3:1 in this classic city derby. Partizan stole home-court advantage in Game 2 from Zvezda but then lost next two games mostly due to lack of quality (even though Dusk “Dule” Vujosevic will say otherwise).

Both rounds proved to be very competitive and interesting. Stakes are high. The winners of semifinal series are playing in the Euroleague next season. With best-of-five game series, it’s boban_marjanovicfairer. In case one team has a bad game and can’t hit a shot (like Zvezda did last year vs Cibona on F4), there are other games. Also, there are opportunities to adjust to opponents throughout the serie, something that is extremely interesting to analyze.

Parallel to ABA playoffs, Euroleague playoffs have also started (and mind you, ABA playoffs have been MUCH MORE interesting). However, after quarter-finals end, we’re going to see four teams playing in Madrid on Final Four. So one game is going to decide everything. If some player gets food poisoning in the hotel prior to match, it may be crucial factor that can not be fixed and his team may lose because he ate outdated eggs (OK, those teams are not staying in low-level hotels with bad restaurants, but you got the point).

Seriously Euroleague should consider changing this format. We want playoffs again after quarter-finals. Yeah, there will be a lot of games (but wait, why not change Top 16 format again to 4 groups with 4 teams and cut down number of games in that stage?)… Ok, so we can fix a lot of games issues. The problem with it are TV rights. However, there is a solution to every problem. Let’s make the game better. Better games will in the end produce more satisfied customers/fans and it will produce more money.

Your turn Euroleague to change something…

The Kyle Korver 3P effect

Kyle Korver is hot this season . He is a really important piece in ATLANTA puzzle . Some interesting stats : He has the second lowest USG% ( first actually cause Elton Brand participated in 33 games )  in his team with the best actually OFFENSIVE RATING ( first is Austin Daye played only 6 games ) . So basically we are talking about the most efficient player in the team with the less possible possessions . How can a player achieve this ? The answer is by the effect of the 3P shot ( amongst others )  thus using his 3P shot ability well on the floor . Sometimes players want to do more than what they can do best on the floor . His shot is 96% assisted , while other players like Chris Paul , Brandon Jenkins and LeBron James score around 50% assisted and the rest created by themselves .  It is really important for a player to play the game to his strength and with the weapons he chooses to and not the opponent . Watching the clips leave me a big question …. why no one will ever press the pass and also why defender will take a shortcut against 1 of the most dangerous shooters in the NBA at the moment ?