This season we will see the part 2 of last season’s PAO vs Real series.Last’s year favorite of the series was PAO , having finished the season on a high and occupying position 4 of the table and the home advantage. This season the tables have turned and Real has the advantage. However PAO again had a strong finish after shuffling the cards mid-season and bringing couple of players and HALL OF FAME coach , Pitino.
STORY SO FAR
Focusing in this year’s results we can see that Real has won all the games that a team will say they “lock-in” before the seasons start.They won most of the “required to win” games , against weaker teams.From the top 2 teams they lost to FENER away and CSKA home and away , however they won at EFES in a weird game that it seemed they were close enough to lose , but came back at 4th quarter. From their away games we can say that the biggest win was at PAO with this end of game 3p shot from Fernandez. Comparing this season to last also we can see that they had in most of the games their full roster versus last season where they missed in regular season their leader , Sergio Llull. After Doncic departed they did not acquire any high profile substitutes , but placed their “money” on Facundo Campazzo to “come up good” and provide the level of integrity they needed.Campazzo played a key role for them last season in regular season and in play-offs initially , however his role was minimized at the moment that Llull returned and participated only 10 total minutes at Belgrade’s FINAL FOUR.I also must note the performance of Tavares , who this season totally adjusted to EUROLEAGUE and was key for them in some pivotal wins during the season.
SOME STATS + KEYS
Real had top OFFENSIVE rating for the most part of the season and best DEFENSIVE rating .PAO is the 6th best DEFENSIVE rating team and 13th OFFENSIVE ratings , most of these stats were steady from the beginning of the season.Having said that , the series home advantage is for Real Madrid this season , PAO has to stop 1 of the top offense in the league at Madrid , something they have been able to achieve a lot during the regular season. Taking into consideration that their leader Llull will miss some parts of this series due to injury makes the whole scenario , more achievable. Llull had a pivotal role for them even statistically in their wins since in every game that they won had double points and assists versus their losing games.
OFFENSE REAL DEFENSE PAO
Their recent game at Athens is a roadmap to confirm some statistical thoughts that i have. Let’s check out a key sample of their stats:
- 2nd in 3p shots per possessions and 7th best percentage ( 38%)
- 1st in OFF SCREEN possessions and 3rd in OFF SCREEN EFFICIENCY
- 1st in PnRoll possessions with TAVARES to be the player that is the top PnR receiver in the league in terms of POSSESSIONS.
- 2nd in ASSISTED field goals
- 3rd team in HALF COURT EFFICIENCY, 4th in HALF COURT POSSESSIONS
- 15th in terms of offense created in the last 4 seconds.
STATISTIC KEY
- 3PA / FGA rate : PAO under Pasquale allowed their opponents to shoot 3.1 3p shots every 10 shots. Under Pitino this number has raised to 4.1 3p shots every 10 shots , which is top percentage. In the last game at Athens I can validate this with Real taking 36 3p shots from 65 shots ( 55% of their shots ). PAO is clogging the paint and force the opponent take as many contested 3p shots as possible.
- DEFENSIVE REBOUND: This was the “Achilles heel” of PAO’s last game , excluding home Baskonia game. Real had to many of them at Athens and this stat will be pivotal , against a team that already has high offensive performance.
They will execute their offense mid 24 shot clock. Most of their makes will be created with team effort and that’s why are assisted. They rely a lot to the 3P shot because they have high volume and high %’s 3p players. Most from those 3P shots , come in 5 against 5 offense , half court. They use more than anybody else in EUROLEAGUE OFF SCREEN offense , having in their roster OFF SCREEN “specialists” like Carroll and Fernandez and not only them , since most of their players are capable to execute in this type of offense. In their Pick and Roll offense , excluding Llull , they are not so capable OFF DRIBBLE shooters. That’s why Tavares and Ayon are really high volume Pick and Roll receivers this season. Both of them are capable to screen and quick cut to the basket , Tavares also can seal defense for a deep catch.
With the situation as it is now , key for them will be Fabian Causer but also Prepelic. In most of the games that either Campazzo or Llull was absent from the game , their offense was hurt and most of the times they even lost the games.Having said that however , Llull was absent all season long last year and most their current roster has been through this process already. Nonetheless for sure they will have a great problem since their creative users are limited even as a full roster.
PAO OFFENSE REAL DEFENSE
- They are the best defense in EUROLEAGUE
- Inefficiency in TRANSITION defense , EUROLEAGUE and ACB
- Opponents worst league shooting %’s
- TOP team to force opponents to take OFF DRIBBLE shots.
- Opponents low OFFENSIVE rebound %
- 3rd in blocked shots
STATISTIC KEY:
- Percentage of PnR offense user : At Athens recent game Real forced PAO with their defense to take 33% of their PnR offense with the players who was running the PnR , which is double from what PAO normally does.PAO already is a low %’s OFF DRIBBLE team and PnR ball handler efficiency team. Forcing the user to take a lot of shots was key to keep PAO’s offensive rating low in this game.
- OFFENSIVE REBOUND: PAO is really high on OFFENSIVE REBOUND %’s in the last games and REAL is top on refusing those during season. This will be a high KEY.
PAO last season and also this , had relied a lot on FAST BREAK. Last year especially in home games they were really successful in executing , not so much however in away games. Coach Pitino maintains and even stepped one gear higher the gas pedal , recognizing the Calathes effect and also the capabilities and in capabilities of the supporting cast. Until Pasquale ‘s departure PAO had 12% of their offense to be FAST BREAK , a number that peaked at 14% in the next 16 games under Pitino’s reigns.Add to that the fact that PAO took 14 3p shots in the first 14 games in FAST BREAK ( scored 1) and then 30 FAST BREAK 3p shots ( scored 8 ) in the next 16 games under coach Pitino.How the game started recently at Athens should be a roadmap for PAO. Real has a TRANSITION problem both in EUROLEAGUE and in Spanish league. If PAO can execute and play in FAST BREAK “efficient” mode , then they will boost their offense , that is not so efficient in half-court game. However they can “get lost in their own museum” if they do not recognize opportunities and just try to play high volume FAST BREAK offense.PAO was really efficient to put the ball in the post in the last winning streak games and create lot of offense from there.Game at Armani was a great example. Whenever Real’s lost , their opponents had high volume POST POSSESSIONS. PAO has a good POST offense , especially in the last games and this for PAO will be key to boost their offense.
STATS are from SYNERGY SPORT TECHNOLOGY
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